End-of-day signals on Bitcoin and Gold. Five gates must align before any long fires. Eight years of backtest, fully reproducible on public charts.
$100,000 invested in Bitcoin on January 1 2018. One investor held it. The other followed every signal of the Bitcoin Trend Engine. After 8.3 years, this is where they stand.
Bitcoin Trend Engine is not built to catch the bottom or the top. It is built to compound capital while taking less risk than buy and hold. The engine sits in cash more than half the time. It misses the first leg of every rally. It gives back gains at every turn. And after 8.3 years it still ends up four times further ahead than buying and holding the same asset, with roughly half the maximum drawdown. This is a defensive product, designed for family offices and patient capital that want a high Sharpe ratio, a high Sortino ratio, and an honest risk-reward profile — not a thrill ride.
The Bitcoin Trend Engine doesn't fire on a single indicator. Five gates must align before any long fires: price has to close above the 150-day Trend Line, and four proprietary BTE Scores — Trend, Momentum, Volatility, and Volume — must each confirm conditions are favourable. The four sub-scores blend into a 0–100 composite (the BTE Score) which has to clear 60 for the entry to trigger. If any one gate disagrees, the engine stays in cash.
Every signal is evaluated on the settled daily close. No intraday noise, no chasing wicks, no reactive trades. Once the day settles, the engine decides.
Gate 1 is the visible 150-day Trend Line — price has to close above it. Gates 2 through 5 are proprietary BTE sub-scores (Trend, Momentum, Volatility, Volume) that blend into the BTE Score composite, which has to clear 60. If any one of the five disagrees, the engine stays in cash. That alignment requirement is what lets the engine be in market less than half the time and still compound at 45.9% per year.
The engine spends roughly half its time in cash. While out, capital earns the cash yield, currently 4 percent per annum. Capital preservation is the feature, not a bug.
All three strategies share the same underlying engine. They differ in how they allocate between Bitcoin and Gold, and in how much volatility they tolerate to compound.
The Bitcoin track record sits at exactly 50% win rate. The strategy still compounds because the average winning trade is 7.4 times bigger than the average losing trade. The 50/50 win rate is not a flaw, it is the design.
Window: January 2018 to April 2026 (8.3 years). Net of trading costs. Cash yield 4 percent per annum when out of market.
| BITCOIN TREND ENGINE | BUY AND HOLD | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | BTC Only · Flagship | Conservative | Rotation | BTC | Gold |
| $100,000 grew to | $2,305,681 | $999,403 | $3,990,641 | $573,097 | $344,419 |
| CAGR | +45.9% | +31.9% | +55.8% | +23.4% | +16.1% |
| Max drawdown | -43.5% | -21.9% | -40.6% | -81.5% | -22.0% |
| Sharpe ratio iSharpe ratio measures return per unit of total volatility. Above 1.0 is considered good. Above 2.0 is excellent. Higher means better risk-adjusted returns. | 1.15 | 1.41 | 1.28 | 0.54 | 0.98 |
| Trades / year | 2.9 | 6.5 | 6.7 | n/a | n/a |
| Time in market | 43% | 67% | 70% | 100% | 100% |
| BITCOIN TREND ENGINE | BUY AND HOLD | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | BTC Only | Conservative | Rotation | BTC | Gold |
| 2018 | -13.9% | -3.2% | -10.7% | -72.6% | -3.1% |
| 2019 | +90.7% | +48.4% | +89.1% | +87.2% | +17.8% |
| 2020 | +174.1% | +84.7% | +185.9% | +302.8% | +23.9% |
| 2021 | +87.6% | +29.7% | +61.4% | +57.6% | -6.2% |
| 2022 | -16.5% | -3.4% | -13.7% | -65.3% | +0.8% |
| 2023 | +116.9% | +57.8% | +103.2% | +154.2% | +11.8% |
| 2024 | +56.9% | +32.2% | +66.7% | +111.5% | +27.0% |
| 2025 | -8.8% | +24.0% | +32.5% | -7.3% | +61.5% |
| 2026 YTD | -4.2% | -0.3% | +3.0% | -12.4% | +8.2% |
| CAGR | +45.9% | +31.9% | +55.8% | +23.4% | +16.1% |
| Max Drawdown | -43.5% | -21.9% | -40.6% | -81.5% | -22.0% |
After staying correctly out of Bitcoin for seven months while it dropped 44 percent from $110,769 to $62,000, the engine fired a fresh long signal in early May.
Trade currently active
The previous trade exited October 11, 2025 at $110,769. The engine then sat in cash through the entire 44 percent decline that followed, while Bitcoin fell to $62,000 in February.
Late April produced multiple approaching days where price briefly pierced the trend line intraday but never closed above. May 2 was the day all five gates aligned simultaneously, and the trade fired on the settled close.
Early access to live signals, the full track record, and the engine itself when it opens to outside capital.